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  • GBPUSD Daily Market Analytics

    GBP/USD: pound grows on breakthrough in Brexit talks
    08/12/2017
    Current dynamics

    The pound continues to trade stably ahead of the publication (13:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market, including against the dollar. Strong data are expected: the increase in the number of new places created in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy amounted to 200,000 in November (after an increase of 261,000 new seats in October), the average hourly wage rose by 0.3% (after rising in October 0%), unemployment remained at the same level of 4.1%.
    It is likely that the dollar will strengthen in response to the publication of strong data.
    This is the latest important macro data before the Fed meeting next week (December 12 - 13). If labor market data comes out, as predicted, with strong values, then there will be no last doubt that the Fed will raise the rate at this meeting. And, although this increase, by and large, is already taken into account in prices, strong macro data creates the basis for further rate increases. And this is a strong fundamental factor for the further growth of the dollar.
    The optimism of investors regarding the prospects for the US economy has increased. The index of the dollar WSJ, which displays the value of the US currency against a basket of 16 currencies, increased by 0.1%, to 87.25.
    In anticipation of the publication of strong data from the labor market, the dollar is growing in price against major competitor currencies, including against safe assets, the yen, the franc, and gold. The exception is, perhaps, only the pound, which maintains positive dynamics, including in the GBP / USD.
    Today, the pound received additional support after the results of the talks of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker with the prime ministers of Ireland and Great Britain became known.
    British Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced that the UK and the EU reached an agreement under Brexit terms. Now, after six months of tense negotiations, the way to discussing the trade agreement has been opened. "I believe that we have reached the necessary breakthrough", Juncker said. The agreement on the conditions for the exit of the UK from the EU, which include financial conditions, the conditions for the stay of EU citizens in the UK, and the settlement of the border problem with Ireland, means that EU representatives are now likely to agree to further negotiations.
    If at the meeting in Brussels on December 14-15 the leaders of the EU countries approve the agreement, then negotiations on further UK trade agreements with the EU and conditions for a transition period may begin in the next few weeks. The UK exit from the EU is scheduled for March 2019. The trade agreement can be signed only after the UK leaves the bloc.
    The pound also gets support from positive macro statistics on the UK, coming in recently.
    According to official data released on Friday, manufacturing production in October increased by 0.1% compared to September, and by 3.9% compared to October last year.
    Industrial production in the UK for the first time in history grew in October for the sixth consecutive month.
    Contrary to the gloomy forecasts of economists, the UK economy did not collapse after the referendum on Brexit, and British producers are supported by weakening the pound and strong external demand. The manufacturing sector accounts for about one-fifth of the country's economy, mainly based on services and the domestic market. In general, industrial production in the UK in October compared with October last year increased by 3.6%, which is slightly higher than the forecast.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


    Support levels: 1.3410, 1.3365, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3075
    Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050


    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.3440. Stop-Loss 1.3520. Take-Profit 1.3410, 1.3365, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3075
    Buy Stop 1.3520. Stop-Loss 1.3440. Take-Profit 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050






    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  • #2
    GBPUSD DAILY ANALYSIS

    GBP/USD

    Even before the U.S. jobs data came out Friday, price started to drop and the Non-Farm Payrolls added more fuel to the US Dollar, taking the pair into support. A minor bullish move was seen late in the afternoon but the session was overall bearish.





    Technical Outlook

    The bulls failed to take the pair above the resistance at 1.3500 and this is another blow to the medium term uptrend. The picture is mixed but the bounce at 1.3360 will most likely trigger a climb above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.3410. However, if this resistance zone holds and rejects price, we will probably see a break of 1.3360.


    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound has a lacklustre day ahead, without any notable release. This may translate into a slow and ranging trading session.
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    Comment


    • #3
      GBP/USD: inflation in the UK remains high
      12/12/2017
      Current dynamics

      Presented at the beginning of today's European session, data on consumer inflation in the UK caused a surge in volatility in the dynamics of the pound. The consumer price index (CPI) of Great Britain in November grew by 3.1% (in annual terms), exceeding the forecast by 0.1% and the target inflation rate by 1%.
      Consumer prices in the UK in November grew at the fastest pace in the past six years, and signs of a weakening of price pressure are not observed.
      Accelerating inflation increases the pressure on household budgets, which has a negative impact on consumer spending and the economy as a whole, focused mainly on the domestic market.
      A significant share of the UK's GDP is made up of consumer spending. Due to the sharp drop in the pound after the referendum on Brexit, both imported consumer goods and raw materials imported to the UK rose in price. This, in turn, increased the producers' selling prices, and as a result, accelerated the growth of prices for consumer goods.
      In November, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate for the first time in ten years, intending to slow inflation to a target level of 2%. As stated in the Bank of England, during the next three years the rate can be increased 2 more times, by 0.25% each time.
      However, the data published today indicate that high inflation rates may remain in the UK longer than economists had expected.
      It is possible that the leaders of the Bank of England will again soon have to think about another increase in the interest rate in order to bring down the growing inflation.
      On Thursday, there will be the next meeting of the Bank of England. It is widely expected that the rate will be maintained at the current level of 0.5%. Investors will be interested in the report on monetary policy with the results of voting on the rate and other issues, as well as comments on the state of the economy and the minutes of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with the votes cast for and against the increase / decrease in the interest rate. The main risks for the UK after Brexit are associated with expectations of a slowdown in the country's economic growth, as well as a large current account deficit in the UK's balance of payments.
      The determining factor in the dynamics of the pound is still the situation around Brexit. Now "galloping" inflation is added to this list. Thus, the intrigue about the further actions of the Bank of England remains.
      *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

      Support levels: 1.3310, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3080
      Resistance levels: 1.3395, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

      Trading Scenarios

      Sell Stop 1.3290. Stop-Loss 1.3410. Take-Profit 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3080
      Buy Stop 1.3410. Stop-Loss 1.3290. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050


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      Comment


      • #4
        GBP/USD Daily Analytics
        01:15 13.12.2017

        GBP/USD remains supported by the Fibonacci zone of 65% at 1.3335 and looks forward to test fresh highs across the board. Such level should give up in order to invalidate the bullish scenario and the next target will be the November 28th lows at 1.3220. However, to the upside, if the pair manages to break above December 8th highs, then the next target lies at -23.6% Fibo level at 1.3626.

        RSI indicator remains hovering in the positive territory.

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        • #5
          GBP/USD Daily Analytics
          07:58 13.12.2017
          Recommendation:

          BUY 1.3430

          SL 1.3375

          TP1 1.3530 TP2 1.3585

          On the daily chart, GBP/USD is retesting the upper border of the previous consolidation range 1.3040-1.3320. In case of successful break of support at 1.3290-1.3320, bears will have an opportunity to trigger “Shakeout-Fakeout” pattern. To resume the uptrend, bulls need to conquer resistance at 1.3520 and 1.3585.



          On H1, GBP/USD has almost reached 78.6% target of the “Gartley” pattern. A pullback of support at 1.3295 with the following return inside the uptrend channel will allow bulls to develop their attack.

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          Comment


          • #6
            GBP/USD Daily Analytics
            06:33 15.12.2017
            Technical levels: support – 1.3420; resistance – 1.3470.

            Trade recommendations:

            Buy — 1.3420/30; SL — 1.3400; TP1 — 1.3470; TP2 — 1.3510.
            Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, with rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are above the Cloud and on the support of Senkou Span A.

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            • #7
              GBP/USD Daily Analytics
              08:11 18.12.2017
              Technical levels: support – 1.3330; resistance – 1.3380.

              Trade recommendations:

              Buy — 1.3340/50; SL — 1.3320; TP1 — 1.3380; TP2 — 1.3430.
              Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span B; a new weak dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the market is on the strong support of Senkou Span B.

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              Comment


              • #8

                The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday after once again failed to make a clear break below 1.3330 support area topped at 1.3418. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.3418 testing 1.3465 or higher. However, as you can see on my daily chart below price keeps printing lower highs since December 01 indicates a downside pressure which can not be underestimated.

                Immediate support is seen around 1.3330. A clear break below that area would expose 1.3220 and trend line support area which remains a good place to buy. Overall I remain bullish.
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                Comment


                • #9
                  GBP/USD Daily Analytics
                  05:37 20.12.2017
                  Recommendation:

                  BUY 1.3415

                  SL 1.3360

                  TP 1.3525 TP2 1.3585 TP3 1.3655

                  On the daily chart, GBP/USD bears for the third time tried to pull the pair below 1.3320 (upper border of the previous consolidation range). Formation of 2 inside bars points at the market’s uncertainty. A break of their highs around 1.3215-1.3420 will increase the odds of the pair’s advance.



                  On H1, GBP/USD formed “Wolfe waves” pattern. A break of support at 1.3415 will trigger the “Butterfly” pattern and create grounds for a further rally.

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                  • #10
                    GBP/USD: pound remains vulnerable against the background of Brexit
                    21/12/2017
                    Current dynamics

                    The resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Teresa Mei Damian Green, as it became known on Wednesday, caused a decline in the pound. Damian Greene was Teresa May's companion, and his departure changes the balance of power in the Cabinet. Now this is just as bad for the conservatives, as the UK conducts the most important negotiations about Brexit. The British government still has no common opinion on further actions and future relations with the EU. The Prime Minister of Great Britain is trying to smooth the differences in the government over Brexit, but, at the same time, is looking for ways to maintain close trade ties with the EU.
                    According to official data released on Thursday, in November of this year, compared with November last year, the net borrowing of the UK public sector decreased and reached a minimum in ten years (8.7 billion pounds, 0.2 billion pounds less than in November last year) . The National Bureau of Statistics of Great Britain noted that in the last months of the financial year, which ends in March 2018, tax revenues are expected to slow down.
                    Philip Hammond, the UK finance minister, announced more gloomy forecasts for the economy in November, and on Wednesday the IMF published a forecast that UK GDP growth in 2018 will slow down to about 1.5% amid the declining consumer and company costs due to Brexit.
                    Meanwhile, in the financial markets, there has been a slowdown in trading activity and a decline in trading volumes ahead of the Catholic Christmas and the celebration of the New Year.
                    From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of important macro data from the United States. At 13:30 (GMT), the US Department of Labor will publish a report on the number of new applications for unemployment benefits. This indicator determines the state of the labor market. The growth is expected to reach 231,000 (against 225,000 last week). The result above the expected indicates a weak labor market, which will negatively affect the US dollar.
                    Also at this time annual data on US GDP for the 3 quarter (updated values) and the price index (for 3 quarter), which is an indicator of inflation, will be published. Data on GDP are among the key, along with data on the labor market and inflation, for the Fed in determining its further monetary policy. A high result strengthens the USD. Forecast: GDP for the 3rd quarter increased by 3.3%. If the data prove to be better, the dollar will be strengthened.
                    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                    Support levels: 1.3330, 1.3300, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3100
                    Resistance levels: 1.3395, 1.3470, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

                    Trading Scenarios

                    Sell Stop 1.3340. Stop-Loss 1.3410. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3100
                    Buy Stop 1.3410. Stop-Loss 1.3340. Take-Profit 1.3470, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050


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                    Comment


                    • #11
                      GBP/USD Daily Analytics
                      06:56 27.12.2017
                      Recommendation:

                      BUY 1.3445

                      SL 1.3390

                      TP1 1.3515 TP2 1.3545 TP3 1.384

                      On the daily chart, GBP/USD changed consolidation range from 1.3045-1.3320 to 1.3320-1.3525. If the pound exits the current corridor, the odds of triggering AB=CD pattern with a target at 127.2% will increase. On the other hand, a break of support at 1.3320 and the pair’s exit from the uptrend channel will allow bears to expect the pound to go to 88.6% of the “Bat” pattern.



                      On H1, a successful test of resistance at 1.3445 and 1.3515 will increase the odds of the uptrend’s resumption.

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                      Comment


                      • #12
                        GBP/USD Daily Analytics
                        07:30 28.12.2017
                        Technical levels: support – 1.3400; resistance – 1.3460, 1.3510.

                        Trade recommendations:

                        Sell — 1.3450; SL — 1.3470; TP1 — 1.3400; TP2 — 1.3340.
                        Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, with horizontal lines; the prices are under strong resistance of 1.3460.

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                        Comment


                        • #13
                          GBP/USD Daily Analytics
                          03:38 29.12.2017



                          The last "Triangle" has been broken, but the price is consolidating. The main intraday target is the 34 Moving Average. If this line acts as support, bulls are likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.3465 - 1.3519.



                          The uptrend has acted as resistance, so the price is consolidating. In this case, we're likely going to have a bearish correction in the short term. If a pullback from the closest support happens at 1.3420, we could have just another bullish rally.
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                          • #14

                            The GBPUSD was corrected lower yesterday bottomed at 1.3496 after failed to break above 1.3615 key resistance. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.3450/20 area.

                            Immediate resistance is seen around 1.3560. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term retesting 1.3615 key resistance which need to be clearly broken to the upside to continue the major bullish trend.
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                            • #15

                              The GBPUSD didn’t make significant movement last week. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Price is moving sideways between 1.3615 – 1.3495 as you can see on my daily chart below. We need a clear break from that range area to see clearer direction. Overall I remain bullish but need a clear break above 1.3615 to resume the major bullish trend testing 1.3835 region this week.

                              On the downside, a clear break and daily close below 1.3495 could trigger further bearish pressure testing the trend line support and 1.3330 area.
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